CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T16:53Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 12.80 hour(s)
Difference: 5.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-11-11T09:23Z
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